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How We’ve Humanized Predictive AI
[/ultimate_heading][vc_column_text css=””]Grant Renier, founder of IntualityAI, coined the phrase Intuitive Rationality™ and has been developing the concept and application of it for over 50 years!
The beauty of Intuitive Rationality is its practicality. It acknowledges that AI should mirror human behavior to be truly effective.
Rather than trying to eliminate human cognitive biases from data, Intuitive Rationality embraces the notion that data is intricately linked with human cognition and action. By interpreting data through a simulated human lens, IntualityAI offers a more precise understanding and prediction of complex real-world problems, all rooted in cognitive biases.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”85″ img_size=”200X200″ css=””][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width=”stretch_row” css=”.vc_custom_1715624268795{background-color: #0046b7 !important;}”][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”” el_class=”white-text larger-font”]
IntualityAI’s Intuitive Rationality simulates human
decision-making based on 12 critical cognitive bias metrics
that it uses to make highly accurate predictions for the future.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=””]Mathematical formulas called heuristics (mental shortcuts that allow people to solve problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently) are applied to incoming data, and the AI uses simulated human biases to interpret the data. From that, the system applies intuition to make decisions about future probabilities.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_section full_width=”stretch_row” css=”.vc_custom_1715285639648{padding-top: 50px !important;padding-bottom: 50px !important;background-image: url(https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-swoopy-background-1100tall.jpg?id=99) !important;background-position: center !important;background-repeat: no-repeat !important;background-size: cover !important;}”][vc_row][vc_column][vc_custom_heading text=”Intuitive Rationality’s Key Human Cognitive Biases” font_container=”tag:h2|text_align:center|color:%23000000″ use_theme_fonts=”yes” css=””][vc_tta_accordion style=”modern” c_position=”left” active_section=”1″ collapsible_all=”true” css=”.vc_custom_1715345697284{margin-top: 20px !important;}”][vc_tta_section title=”ANCHORING BIAS” tab_id=”1715284171977-07c7981a-9334″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^84|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-achoring-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-achoring-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715613581856{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]When Early Information Impacts Decision-Making
Individuals tend to rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive (the “anchor”) when making decisions. This initial information can heavily influence subsequent judgments and decisions, even if they are irrelevant or inaccurate.
This can affect various aspects of decision-making, from financial choices to medical judgments, and it often occurs subconsciously, making it challenging to recognize and mitigate without deliberate effort.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”AVAILABILITY BIAS” tab_id=”1715284171991-a7e85a59-ec09″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^83|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-availablity-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-availablity-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715610932484{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]How Easily Available Information Is
Availability Bias is a common pitfall in our thinking. It’s when we tend to overestimate the likelihood of events that are more readily available in our memory. This bias occurs when we rely on information that is easily accessible or salient, rather than considering a broader range of evidence. Recognizing and overcoming this bias is crucial for making informed judgments or decisions.
The availability heuristic, which underlies availability bias, suggests that people assess the frequency or probability of events based on how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, emotionally charged, or widely publicized events are more likely to be recalled and thus perceived as more common or probable, even if they are statistically rare.
The Availability Bias is when people tend to overestimate the likelihood of events that are more readily available in memory. This bias occurs because individuals rely on information that is easily accessible or salient when making judgments or decisions, rather than considering a broader range of evidence.
The availability heuristic, which underlies availability bias, suggests that people assess the frequency or probability of events based on how easily examples come to mind. Vivid, recent, emotionally charged, or widely publicized events are more likely to be recalled and thus perceived as more common or probable, even if they are statistically rare.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”ENVIRONMENTAL BIAS” tab_id=”1715285064281-219ffa7a-c24f”][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^82|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-environmental-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-environmental-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614237977{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]
When The External Environment Impacts The Thought Process
Environmental factors can influence how people perceive and judge information. For instance, the surroundings in which an advertisement is presented can affect how consumers interpret its message and form opinions about the advertised product or service. Similarly, environmental cues such as lighting, noise levels, or even the presence of other people can impact individuals’ judgments and decisions.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”SYMMETRY BIAS” tab_id=”1715285117408-7b6ae9c3-28e9″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^81|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-symmetry-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-symmetry-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614281017{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]Humans Tend To Look For Symmetry In Physical Appearance And In Thought
Intuitive Rationality’s symmetry bias heuristic is a generally simplified solution to independently, widely researched known asymmetry between positive and negative values, and increasing and decreasing numbers in human behavior and decision-making.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”MEMORY DECAY BIAS” tab_id=”1715285155680-a45ae48f-34ec”][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^80|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-memory-decay-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-memory-decay-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614307240{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]If Information Is Not Used, It Is Easily Forgotten
Memory decay causes information and events to be less available for later retrieval as time passes. Like humans, Intuitive Rationality gives greater importance to more immediate data, fact or fiction, to make decisions. It divides this bias into short-term and long-term memory, where extensive research confirms short-term memory decay faster than long-term.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”CONFIRMATION BIAS” tab_id=”1715285183243-eaeac08c-1af1″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^79|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-confimation-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-confimation-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614340345{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]Humans Tend To Decide And Are Convinced By What They Know Or Believe To Be True
This cognitive bias occurs when individuals search for, interpret, favor, and recall information that confirms or supports their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. This bias can lead people to selectively perceive evidence aligning with their views while ignoring or downplaying contradictory evidence.
Confirmation bias can influence decision-making, reasoning, and judgment in both personal and professional contexts. It can affect how people evaluate information, form opinions, and make choices, often leading to skewed or incomplete assessments of situations, but nevertheless create our real world.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”HOT HANDS BIAS” tab_id=”1715285215853-61e49251-b454″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^78|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-hot-hands-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-hot-hands-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614365115{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]When an NBA player goes on a scoring streak above his average numbers or a gambler gets a “hot hand” rolling the dice, it makes sense at the time to keep feeding the player the ball or keep rolling the dice. But i’s only a matter of time before things turn to normal. The key to Intuitive Rationality is predicting when the “hot hand” will turn cold. For investing or sports gambling, the “hot hand bias” can have huge ramifications on when to sell a stock, for example, or who to bet for or against an NFL team.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”QUALITATIVE BIAS” tab_id=”1715285261281-f410a72d-7bd4″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^77|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-qualitative-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-qualitative-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614377240{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]Favoring Quality Without Quantity
This bias calculates the combinations of variables within an event to determine the degrees of inferences the data supports. The qualitative function uses absolute values from data inputs, as in current pass yards less previous pass yards divided by current plus previous pass yards, for example.
An example is believing a single case study to be decisive.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”QUANTITATIVE BIAS” tab_id=”1715285290713-3b0294bd-0abd”][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^76|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-quantitative-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-quantitative-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614387649{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]Favoring Quantity Over Quality
This bias calculates the total of incidences within an event of the results. The quantitative function uses numbers of incidences, such as one current pass divided by one current plus one previous pass.
For example, poor or useless data collected from thousand of people can be informative.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”FAST & FRUGAL BIAS” tab_id=”1715285328963-5a5d54e4-6112″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^75|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-fast-and-frugal-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-fast-and-frugal-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715614401521{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]When Humans Deem Something “Insignificant,” They Spend Less Time Focusing On It
This decision-making method uses simple heuristics to make effective, quick decisions with limited information. It contrasts with more complex and time-consuming decision-making processes that attempt to analyze all available data. F
Fast & Frugal search focuses on using a few key cues that are most likely to lead to a satisfactory outcome, thus optimizing both the speed and efficiency of decision-making. This approach is beneficial in environments where speed is crucial, and data may be incomplete or overwhelming.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”RISK ADVERSITY BIAS” tab_id=”1715285430324-f896e87e-6334″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^79|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-confimation-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-confimation-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715611123389{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]The Human Preference For A Sure Outcome Over A Gamble
When the perceived ratio of risk versus gain is less than 2.5 to 1, the decision to minimize risk is often taken.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][vc_tta_section title=”GAIN MAXIMIZATION BIAS” tab_id=”1715611148679-e2c4e677-dc97″][bsf-info-box icon_type=”custom” icon_img=”id^79|url^https://iai.ltmg-devsite.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/intuality-confimation-bias.png|caption^null|alt^null|title^intuality-confimation-bias|description^null” img_width=”150″ pos=”left” el_class=”icon-green-title” title_font_color=”#000000″ title_font_size=”desktop:18px;” css_info_box=”.vc_custom_1715611243015{padding-right: 20px !important;padding-left: 20px !important;}”]The Human Preference For A Higher Reward Despite Larger Risks
When perceived gains are greater than 2.5 to 1 over risks, the decision is typically to go for the prospect of gains.[/bsf-info-box][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_accordion][/vc_column][/vc_row][/vc_section]